Trump H-1B Crackdown Drives Tech Talent Back to India, TechGig

President Donald Trump’s H-1B visa crackdown and widespread tech layoffs in the United States are driving a significant number of skilled Indian and Chinese tech professionals to return to their home countries. This shift is primarily due to increased job uncertainty and tightening US immigration regulations, leading many to dismantle lives built over years.

Policy Changes and Uncertainty

The Trump administration’s efforts to limit immigration have created considerable apprehension among H-1B visa holders. Proposed changes, such as a US$100,000 application fee for new H-1B visas—though later struck down—and a planned US$4,000 surcharge for extensions and renewals from September, have made it more expensive and complex for American employers to recruit foreign talent. This environment has made the H-1B visa, typically seen as a stepping stone to US permanent residency, increasingly uncertain.

Return to India and China

Data from Bengaluru-based talent consulting firm Xpheno indicates a notable increase in professionals returning to India, with approximately 15,100 Indian professionals returning in 2025, up from 9,800 in 2024. Similar trends are observed among Chinese nationals, with China’s Ministry of Education reporting 536,000 students returning in 2025. H-1B petition approvals for top employers like Amazon, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Apple, and Microsoft are projected to drop over 10% in fiscal year 2026 compared to 2025.

Opportunities in India’s GCCs

While layoffs continue in IT services, returning Indian professionals may find opportunities in India’s 2,000 Global Capability Centres (GCCs). These centres have collectively hired 100,000 employees annually since 2023. Research from Xpheno shows that the top 125 GCCs in India absorbed around 7,000 mid and senior tech professionals with over 10 years of experience in the past 12 months, including 2,800 from the US. However, returning professionals may face smaller pay packages and are primarily valued for special data skills or AI expertise.