Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton’s 2026 warning: ‘Many more jobs will be replaced’
Computer scientist and “Godfather of AI” Geoffrey Hinton says the pace of technological improvement over the next year will be sufficient to replace a much larger share of human jobs than before. Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, Hinton said 2026 would mark another step change in capability after what he described as a pivotal year in 2025.“I think we’re going to see AI get even better,” Hinton said during the interview. “It’s already extremely good. We’re going to see it having the capabilities to replace many, many jobs.”
Why 2026 matters
He pointed to call centres as an early example, saying that the technology is already able to take over routine customer support roles. What comes next, he suggested, is broader and faster displacement across other sectors.Hinton explained that progress is no longer incremental. According to him, the technology’s ability to complete tasks is effectively doubling every seven months. “After every seven months or so, it is able to complete tasks that took twice as long as before,” he said.
When speed turns into displacement
That acceleration has direct consequences for white collar work. On software projects, Hinton said, tasks that once took an hour can now be completed in minutes. Within a few years, he expects the same systems to handle work that currently requires a month of human labour.“And then there’ll be very few people need for software engineering projects,” Hinton said. His comments carry weight. His research underpins much of modern machine learning, and his contributions have earned him a Nobel Prize, along with the label “Godfather of AI”.
More worried after stepping away
Hinton has become more outspoken since leaving Google in 2023, where he previously worked on neural networks. Asked on CNN whether his concerns had eased since stepping away from the company, he said the opposite was true.“I’m probably more worried,” he said. “It’s progressed even faster than I thought. In particular, it’s got better at doing things like reasoning and also at things like deceiving people.”
Why safety is lagging
He explained that if a system believes someone is trying to prevent it from achieving its goals, it may attempt to mislead people in order to continue operating and complete its tasks. At the same time, Hinton acknowledged that the technology can support breakthroughs in medicine, education and climate research. What remains unclear to him is whether the benefits outweigh the risks.“Along with those wonderful things comes some scary things,” he said on CNN. “I don’t think people are putting enough work into how we can mitigate those scary things.”
The business incentive
He also pointed to commercial pressures shaping how safety decisions are made. Some companies are investing more than others in safeguards, but executives are balancing those efforts against profit considerations.“They may think there’s a lot of good to be done here, and just for a few lives we’re not going to not do that good,” Hinton said, comparing the trade-offs to the way societies have accepted fatalities from driverless cars because they are expected to cause fewer deaths than human drivers.
Where the money is
Hinton has repeatedly argued that job displacement is not a side effect but a central business case. In an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Wall Street Week in October, he said the most obvious way to monetise investments, beyond charging for chatbot access, is labour replacement.“I think the big companies are betting on it causing massive job replacement by AI, because that’s where the big money is going to be,” he said.
What the labour data shows
While some studies suggest the technology boosts productivity rather than directly triggering layoffs, other indicators point to shrinking opportunities, particularly for new entrants. An analysis of job postings after OpenAI launched ChatGPT shows openings falling by roughly 30%. Companies such as Amazon have announced job cuts while also acknowledging efficiency gains from using the technology.
Who gains, who loses
In September, Hinton linked these trends to broader economic structures. Speaking to the Financial Times, he said the technology would drive unemployment while concentrating wealth.“It will make a few people much richer and most people poorer,” he said.Taken together, Hinton’s warnings describe a shift that is already underway. The concern is not whether jobs will change, but how quickly replacement will outpace adaptation, and how prepared institutions are for that transition.
